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A weekly development news platform published by UrgeDevWire, produced by Urge Communications. Covering wider East African region.
Urge Inside Health| East Africa. Urge- DevWire
Water Crisis Deepens at Burundi's Overcrowded Cishemere Transit Centre for Congolese Refugees
A moderate to strong El Nino has settled over East Africa, with the World Meteorological Organization's seasonal update putting the Pacific sea surface anomaly at roughly 2.9 degrees Celsius for August through October 2026, still intensifying with high model confidence, according to analysis published 2 September. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre had earlier found a 60 to 80 percent probability of below normal rainfall across central, northeastern and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan and northern Uganda through the June to September season, conditions closely resembling the strong El Nino years of 1997 and 2023.
The picture reverses for the October to December short rains, which supply up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. These are now forecast to be wetter than normal across most of the Greater Horn, reinforced by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The World Food Programme's Somalia office forecasts a prolonged dry spell running through October followed by elevated flood risk in the Deyr season, a sequence leaving communities little time to recover between hazards, with water borne disease flagged as a secondary risk.
South Sudan illustrates the duality starkly, with Lake Victoria's level driving Sudd wetland flooding even as drought is already declared in the country's south. Researchers warn that repeated positive Indian Ocean Dipole events could make wetland expansion in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile a permanent, rather than seasonal, driver of displacement.
Who this affects: National meteorological and disaster management agencies across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda; humanitarian agencies planning anticipatory action; agricultural and food security programming across the Greater Horn.
Source: World Meteorological Organization; IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC); World Food Programme
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Courtesy Photo/ SOS Media Burundi
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