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Eastern Africa faces a double climate threat as drought-hit communities brace for flooding
Communities across the eastern Horn of Africa that spent the past year watching the rains fail are now bracing for heavy flooding, according to the UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa, which describes the El Niño season as a double hit in which drought and flood risks overlap.
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, convened by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in Kigali in August, gave a 90 percent chance of enhanced October to December rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya. It also indicated a high chance of seasonal totals above 400 millimetres across central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania. UNDP notes that rains had begun in parts of 24 Kenyan counties by 5 October, and that the Shabelle River at Jowhar in Somalia had risen by 2.22 metres by 8 October.
The flood risk follows severe dryness. IGAD's latest analysis counts 40.3 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity across six member states, excluding Ethiopia, and about 4.1 million in Kenya's arid and semi arid counties. UNDP says drought leaves hard soil that absorbs water poorly, pushes people into flood exposed settlements and strips households of reserves. Somalia has 3.26 million internally displaced people, and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification has warned that flooding could push displaced families in Baidoa towards risk of famine.
Resources are shrinking. UNDP cites a projection that humanitarian assistance will fall by about 40 percent between 2024 and 2026, and says Somalia's humanitarian plan was 27 percent funded by mid September.
UNDP urges governments to plan for drought and flood within one system, turn data into early decisions, keep health, water and transport services running, and prepare for recovery. It notes that Somalia has approved a national El Niño preparedness plan and that Ethiopia has triggered anticipatory action in 114 woredas home to 9.3 million people.
Sources: UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa, From Drought to Deluge, 22 October 2026 (figures from ICPAC, IGAD, IPC and WMO as cited by UNDP)
Urge Inside Health| East Africa. Urge- DevWire
22 October 2026 · Regional · Horn of Africa
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