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ICPAC Warns of Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risk Across Parts of East Africa

NAIROBI, Kenya — 11 August 2026

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is warning of heightened rainfall and flood risks across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa during the 11–18 August 2026 forecast period, with implications for communities, infrastructure and humanitarian preparedness.

ICPAC's weekly forecast indicates above-normal rainfall over parts of western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, isolated areas of central Kenya and several parts of South Sudan. Exceptional rainfall—above the 90th percentile—is expected in parts of western and southern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia and pockets of South Sudan.

The forecast also identifies potential flooding in parts of western Sudan, central to north-western Ethiopia and pockets of northern and western South Sudan. Communities in high-risk areas have been advised to exercise caution.

ICPAC further projects elevated heat stress across much of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern Ethiopia.

The development significance is substantial because climate information is most valuable when it reaches decision-makers before hazards occur. Early warnings can support contingency planning by governments, humanitarian agencies, farmers, transport operators and communities.

For East Africa, increasingly variable rainfall creates simultaneous risks. Heavy rainfall can trigger floods and landslides, while hotter and drier conditions in other areas can intensify water stress and agricultural losses.

The forecast therefore reinforces the importance of investing in anticipatory action and climate-resilient infrastructure, rather than relying primarily on emergency response after disasters occur.

For humanitarian and development partners, the immediate priority is translating the forecast into local action—identifying exposed communities, pre-positioning assistance and communicating warnings in accessible formats.

The value of regional climate services ultimately lies in whether accurate forecasts can become timely decisions that reduce losses and protect livelihoods.

Source: IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

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