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ICPAC Forecast Signals Wetter-than-Normal October–December Season Across Greater Horn

KIGALI, Rwanda — 18 August 2026

The Greater Horn of Africa is facing an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during the October–December 2026 rainfall season, according to a new regional climate outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

ICPAC and national meteorological and hydrological services released the outlook on 18 August, highlighting the potential influence of strengthening El Niño conditions. The October–December season is particularly important for Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, where it can account for up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in some areas. It also contributes significantly to rainfall in Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda.

Above-normal rainfall can provide opportunities for agriculture, water-resource recovery and livestock production, particularly in areas that have experienced prolonged dry conditions.

However, higher rainfall also creates risks. Flooding, landslides, crop damage, disease outbreaks and infrastructure disruption can quickly turn a favourable rainfall forecast into a humanitarian challenge if preparedness is weak.

The development significance is therefore less about predicting rainfall and more about whether governments and development partners can act on the information early.

Regional climate services such as ICPAC's forecasts can support agricultural planning, disaster preparedness, reservoir management, humanitarian contingency planning and early-warning systems.

For East Africa, where climate shocks increasingly affect food security and livelihoods, anticipatory action can reduce the cost of responding after disasters occur.

The forecast provides several months for governments, humanitarian agencies, farmers and communities to prepare. The priority now is converting regional climate intelligence into local early action, especially in flood-prone and climate-vulnerable communities.

Source : ICPAC — October–December 2026 Climate Outlook

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