EA News Climate

According to The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the members states' National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHs), and the World Meteorological Organisations, the regional forecast coming March–May, rains will bring a season of contrasts, with wetter-than-usual conditions in some areas and dryness and heat stress in others.

East Africa is likely to experience a highly variable March to May (MAM) 2026 rainy season, with climate experts warning of uneven rainfall distribution, localized heavy downpours, and above-normal temperatures. The outlook was issued during the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF72).

Several western parts of the region—including areas of Uganda, western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and Ethiopia—show increased chances of above-normal rainfall. However, experts stress that this does not guarantee steady rains. Instead, intense rainfall events may be interspersed with dry spells, complicating planning for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

In contrast, parts of the eastern sector, including coastal Kenya and some surrounding areas, face higher probabilities of below-normal rainfall. These conditions could heighten water stress and reduce pasture and crop productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones.

Temperatures are also expected to trend above normal across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. Warmer conditions can increase evaporation rates, intensify water demand, and place added strain on crops, livestock, and human health systems.

Although forecasts suggest early or normal rainfall onset in many locations, localized delays remain possible. The MAM season is historically less predictable than other rainy periods, making continuous monitoring essential. National meteorological services are expected to provide regular updates as the season unfolds.

With both flood and drought risks present across different areas, preparedness and flexible response planning will be critical to protecting livelihoods and reducing potential impacts.

Credit: IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), GHACOF72 Technical Statement.

28. January 2026/ Urge- DeveWire

Climate Experts Warn, Heavy Rains, Dry Temperatures and Dry Spells Set to Hit East Africa

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